No! Subsidies are still around. What you've heard on the news refers to a certain type of subsidies, called "CSRs"(available to the poorest eligible people for silver plans to lower out of pocket costs) and while the administration has determined that they will not pay to fund these specific subsidies, health insurance companies are still required to offer them.
The fallout from this funding is that insurance premiums are likely to rise to make up for the loss of funding in 2025 and beyond. The existing subsidies scale to pricing, so if you get a subsidy you won't really be affected, so those who don't get subsidies will be the most impacted down the road.
This year, insurers set premiums for 2024 amid the coronavirus pandemic, which has created considerable uncertainty as to what health costs, utilization and enrollment will look like next year. In 2025, many insurers have provided premium relief and/or voluntarily waived cost-sharing for COVID-19 treatment for their members due to excessive profits and low medical loss ratios during the pandemic.
Now that 2024 rates are finalized, we reviewed rate filings for an overall average premium increase across all plans on the individual market, with a focus on the effect of the pandemic on rate changes. We find that the majority of rate changes for 2025 are still moderate, with increases or decrease of a few percentage points. Proposed rate changes range from a -42.0% decrease to a 25.6% increase, though half fall between a 3.5% decrease and 4.6% increase (Table 1). Insurer and state level rates are shown in Table 2.
| Table 1: Overall Rate Change and COVID-19 Load Among ACA Marketplace Plans | ||
| Overall | Rate Change | Impact of COVID-19 on Rates* |
| 25th Percentile | -3.5% | 0.0% |
| Median | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| 75th Percentile | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| *Among plans that specified an impact of COVID-19. Many filings included COVID-loads that were redacted. SOURCE: KFF analysis of insurer rate filings to state regulators. |
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118 of the 273 (43%) filings specified the effect of COVID-19 on their rates for next year. Among these insurers, the impact of COVID-19 on 2021 premiums ranges from a 3.4% decrease to an 8.4% increase, with half of insurers falling between no impact (0.0%) and 2.0% increases (Table 1). Many insurers used similar language to describe their approach to the pandemic, noting that it would put both upward and downward pressure on health costs in 2024 (see examples below).
The most common factors that insurers cited as driving up health costs in 2024 were the continued cost of COVID-19 testing, the potential for widespread vaccination, the rebounding of medical services delayed from 2020, and morbidity from deferred or foregone care. At the same time, many insurers expect health care utilization to remain lower than usual next year as people continue to observe social distancing measures and avoid routine care, especially in absence of a vaccine or in the event of future waves of the virus. At least 53 insurers included a COVID-19 impact of 0% on their premiums because they did not have enough information to confidently alter their premiums or estimated that these factors would offset one another. 29 of the 273 filings (11%) did not mention COVID-19 at all in their rate filings.
The range of COVID-19 loads included in 2025 rate filings partly reflects differences in issuers’ assumptions about the course of the pandemic and individual behavior next year. Below are a handful of representative explanations that insurers provided to justify any impact that COVID-19 had on their overall 2025 rate filings. These examples provide a glimpse of the different expectations that insurers have regarding the availability and distribution of a vaccine, the extent to which pent-up demand for health care services will rebound in 2025, and various other factors.
Pent-up demand and morbidity adjustments. Many insurers expect that health costs will increase in 2024 due to pent-up demand following deferred care, direct costs related to COVID-19 testing and treatment, and vaccination costs, assuming a vaccine will be ready and available to the general public next year. Some insurers also anticipate increased morbidity resulting from deferred care and the impact of that deferred care on chronic conditions, as well as from the impact of the economic downturn on individuals’ health and insurance status.
You can use our plan finder to apply on or off exchange, calculate your subsidy, and see what plans accept your doctors here:
Enroll in a 2024 Health Insurance Plan
| Table 2: Rate Change and COVID-19 Load Among ACA Marketplace Plans, By State and Insurer | ||
| State/Insurer | Rate Change | Impact of COVID-19 on Rates |
| Alabama* | ||
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alabama | 4.90% | Unknown |
| Bright Health Insurance Company | 25.60% | Unknown |
| Alaska* | ||
| Moda Assurance Company | 0.11% | No mention |
| Premera Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alaska | -4.15% | No mention |
| Arizona* | ||
| Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Arizona | 1.82% | Unknown |
| Bright Health Company of Arizona | 9.33% | Unknown |
| Cigna HealthCare of Arizona | 1.87% | No mention |
| Health Net of Arizona | -0.80% | Unknown |
| Oscar Health Plan | -6.75% | Unknown |
| Arkansas | ||
| Celtic Insurance Company | 4.91% | Unknown |
| QCA Health Plan | 3.05% | Unknown |
| QualChoice Health and Life Insurance | 3.00% | Unknown |
| USAble Mutual Insurance | 2.90% | 0.00% |
| Oscar Insurance Company | New entrant | Unknown |
| HMO Partners Health Advantage | New entrant | 0.00% |
| California | ||
| Blue Cross of California (Anthem) | 6.00% | No mention |
| Blue Shield of California | -2.40% | Unknown |
| Chinese Community Health Plan | -1.30% | Unknown |
| Health Net | 3.40% | 1.20% |
| Kaiser Permanente | 1.00% | Unknown |
| LA Care Health Plan | -4.60% | No mention |
| Molina Healthcare | -3.80% | 0.90% |
| Oscar Health Plan of California | 7.60% | Unknown |
| Sharp Health Plan | -0.50% | 0.00% |
| Valley Health Plan | 9.00% | Unknown |
| Western Health Advantage | -2.60% | Unknown |
| Colorado | ||
| Anthem (HMO Colorado Inc.) | 0.30% | Unknown |
| Bright Health Insurance Company | -5.50% | Unknown |
| Cigna Health and Life Insurance Company | 3.00% | 1.00% |
| Denver Health Medical Plans | -4.60% | 6.40% |
| Friday Health Plan | -5.10% | No mention |
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of Colorado | -1.50% | 0.00% |
| Oscar Health Plan | -4.20% | Unknown |
| Rocky Mountain HMO | -10.00% | 0.00% |
| Connecticut | ||
| Anthem Health Plans | 1.90% | 0.00%** |
| Connecticare | -0.10% | 0.00%** |
| Delaware | ||
| Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield | -1.00% | Unknown |
| District of Columbia | ||
| CareFirst HMO (Blue Choice) | 0.10% | Unknown |
| CareFirst PPO | 1.00% | Unknown |
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan | -1.97% | Unknown |
| Florida | ||
| AvMed | -3.30% | 2.00% |
| Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Florida | 3.70% | 2.00% |
| Bright Health Insurance Company of Florida | 3.70% | 2.00% |
| Celtic Insurance Company | 3.90% | 2.00% |
| Cigna Health And Life Insurance Company | -1.40% | 2.00% |
| Florida Health Care Plan, Inc. | -0.10% | 2.00% |
| Health First Commercial Plans | 4.80% | 2.00% |
| Health Options, Inc | 2.50% | 2.00% |
| Molina Healthcare of Florida | -1.80% | 2.00% |
| Oscar Insurance Company of Florida | 2.90% | 2.00% |
| Georgia* | ||
| Alliant Health Plans | 18.34% | Unknown |
| Ambetter of Peach State | 7.43% | 0.00% |
| Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield | 10.10% | 3.00% |
| CareSource Georgia | -10.29% | Unknown |
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of Georgia | -19.02% | 2.50% |
| Oscar Health Plan of Georgia | 2.11% | Unknown |
| Hawaii | ||
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan | -1.06% | No mention |
| Hawaii Medical Service Association | -3.10% | No mention |
| Idaho | ||
| Blue Cross of Idaho Health Service | -3.50% | No mention |
| Mountain Health Cooperative | 2.00% | 0.00% |
| Pacific Source Health Plans | -7.10% | 0.00% |
| Regence Blue Shield of Idaho | -1.30% | No mention |
| SelectHealth | 5.90% | No mention |
| Illinois* | ||
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of Illinois | -0.12% | Unknown |
| Celtic Insurance Company | 0.26% | 0.00% |
| Cigna HealthCare of Illinois, Inc. | 0.89% | 1.00% |
| Health Alliance Medical Plans, Inc. | 0.00% | Unknown |
| Quartz Health Benefit Plans Corporation | -10.05% | Unknown |
| Indiana | ||
| Anthem Insurance Companies, Inc. | -0.30% | No mention |
| CareSource Indiana, Inc. | 4.30% | 0.00% |
| Celtic Insurance Company | -0.55% | 1.90% |
| Iowa* | ||
| Medica Insurance Company | 2.45% | Unknown |
| Wellmark Health Plan of Iowa, Inc. | -42.04% | Unknown |
| Oscar Health Plan of Iowa | New entrant | Unknown |
| Kansas* | ||
| Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas | 0.70% | Unknown |
| Cigna Health and Life Insurance | 9.96% | 1.00% |
| Medica Insurance Company | 7.78% | 5.00% |
| Oscar Insurance Company | -7.86% | Unknown |
| Sunflower State Health Plan | 4.00% | Unknown |
| Kentucky | ||
| Anthem Health Plans of Kentucky | 5.69% | 2.60% |
| Care Source Kentucky | 4.00% | Redacted |
| Louisiana* | ||
| CHRISTUS Health Plan Louisiana | 7.44% | Unknown |
| HMO Louisiana | 9.50% | Unknown |
| Louisiana Health Service & Indemnity | 7.95% | Unknown |
| Vantage Health Plan | 2.64% | Unknown |
| Maine | ||
| Anthem Health Plans of Maine | -12.50% | 2.50% |
| Harvard Pilgrim Health Plan | -13.00% | 0.00% |
| Maine Community Health Options | -13.70% | -1.20% |
| Maryland | ||
| CareFirst Blue Choice | -11.90% | 0.00% |
| CareFirst CFMI | -17.10% | 0.00% |
| CareFirst GHMS | -17.10% | 0.00% |
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan | -11.00% | 0.00% |
| Optimum Choice (UnitedHealthcare) | New Entrant | Unknown |
| Massachusetts* | ||
| Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Massachusetts HMO Blue | 6.17% | 0.00% |
| Fallon Community Health Plan | 3.52% | 0.00% |
| Harvard Pilgrim Health Care | 7.25% | No mention |
| Health New England | 2.23% | Unknown |
| Tufts Associated HMO | 9.03% | Unknown |
| Tufts Health Public Plans | 12.27% | 0.00% |
| UnitedHealthcare Insurance Company | 15.10% | Unknown |
| BMC HealthNet | Unknown | Unknown |
| AllWays Health Partners | Unknown | Unknown |
| Michigan* | ||
| Blue Care Network of Michigan | 2.50% | No mention |
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan | 1.70% | No mention |
| Oscar Insurance Company | 6.00% | 4.00% |
| McLaren Health Plan Community | -2.00% | 0.00% |
| Meridian Health Plan of Michigan | -5.60% | 2.00% |
| Molina Healthcare of Michigan | 0.40% | Unknown |
| Physicians Health Plan | 3.10% | 3.00% |
| Priority Health Insurance | -0.13% | 0.00% |
| Total Health Care USA | -0.39% | 0.00% |
| Minnesota | ||
| Blue Plus HMO | 4.21% | Unknown |
| Group Health Plan Inc | 0.67% | Unknown |
| Medica Insurance Company | 2.42% | Unknown |
| Preferred One Insurance Company | 1.05% | Unknown |
| Quartz Health Plan | New entrant | Unknown |
| UCare MN | 1.60% | 0.00% |
| Mississippi* | ||
| Ambetter of Magnolia Inc. | 11.19% | Unknown |
| Molina Healthcare of Mississippi, Inc | -2.67% | Unknown |
| Missouri* | ||
| Blue Cross and Blue Shield Kansas City | New entrant | No mention |
| Celtic Insurance Company | 9.10% | Unknown |
| Cigna Health & Life Insurance Company | 1.40% | Unknown |
| Cox Health Systems Insurance Company | 13.60% | No mention |
| Healthy Alliance Life Insurance Company | -1.44% | Unknown |
| Medica Insurance Company | -7.50% | Unknown |
| Oscar Insurance Company | 6.40% | Unknown |
| SSM Health Insurance Company | -0.49% | Unknown |
| Montana | ||
| HCSC (Blue Cross Blue Shield of Montana) | 0.00% | No mention |
| Montana Health Co-Op | 0.68% | No mention |
| Pacific Source Health Plans | 5.00% | No mention |
| Nebraska* | ||
| Medica Insurance Company | 5.36% | Unknown |
| Bright Health | Unknown | Unknown |
| Nevada | ||
| Friday Health Plans of Nevada | New entrant | Unknown |
| Health Plan of Nevada Incorporated | 5.00% | Unknown |
| HMO Colorado INC D/BA HMO Nevada | 3.90% | Unknown |
| Hometown Health Plan | -5.00% | Unknown |
| Hometown Health Providers Insurance | -1.60% | Unknown |
| Rocky Mountain Hospital and Medical Service | 11.00% | Unknown |
| SelectHealth | New entrant | Unknown |
| Sierra Health and Life Insurance Company | 9.80% | Unknown |
| SilverSummit Health Plan | 2.30% | Unknown |
| New Hampshire* | ||
| Celtic Insurance Company | -4.50% | 0.00% |
| Harvard Pilgrim Health Care | -13.54% | 0.00% |
| Matthew Thornton Health Plan (Anthem BCBS) | -15.12% | Unknown |
| New Jersey* | ||
| AmeriHealth HMO | 11.22% | 1.00% |
| AmeriHealth Insurance Company of New Jersey | 3.82% | 1.00% |
| Horizon Healthcare Services | -1.43% | Unknown |
| Oscar Garden State Insurance | 10.59% | Unknown |
| New Mexico | ||
| Molina Healthcare of New Mexico | -0.40% | Unknown |
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Mexico (HCSC) | -7.61% | Unknown |
| True Health | -1.40% | No mention |
| Friday Health Plans | New Entrant | Unknown |
| Western Sky Ambetter | New Entrant | Unknown |
| New York | ||
| Capital District Physicians Health Plan | 4.30% | 0.00% |
| Health Insurance Plan of Greater New York (Emblem) | 3.80% | 2.00% |
| Excellus | -0.20% | 0.50% |
| Fidelis (NY Quality Healthcare Corp) | 1.60% | 8.40% |
| Healthfirst PHSP, Inc. | -2.50% | 0.00% |
| Healthnow New York | -2.80% | 2.00% |
| HealthPlus HP | 1.00% | 5.15% |
| IHBC | -5.30% | 0.00% |
| MetroPlus | 5.00% | 2.10% |
| MVP Health Plan | 3.80% | 1.60% |
| Oscar | 4.90% | 7.40% |
| UnitedHealthcare of New York | 4.80% | 1.00% |
| North Carolina* | ||
| Ambetter of North Carolina | 3.90% | 0.00% |
| BCBS of NC | 4.10% | Unknown |
| Bright Health Company of North Carolina | 1.98% | Unknown |
| CIGNA HealthCare of North Carolina | -10.50% | No mention |
| Oscar Health Plan of NC | New entrant | Unknown |
| UnitedHealthCare of Wisconsin, Inc. | New entrant | Unknown |
| North Dakota* | ||
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Dakota | 4.42% | No mention |
| Medica Health Plans | 13.16% | Unknown |
| Sanford Health Plan | 20.33% | Unknown |
| Ohio* | ||
| AultCare Insurance Company | -4.99% | 2.00% |
| Buckeye Community Health Plan | 1.35% | 0.00% |
| CareSource | 9.30% | 0.00% |
| Community Insurance Company | -3.22% | Unknown |
| Medical Health Insuring Corp. of Ohio | 2.30% | 0.00% |
| Molina Healthcare of Ohio | -0.80% | 0.00% |
| Oscar Buckeye State Insurance Corporation | -0.90% | 0.30% |
| Oscar Insurance Corporation of Ohio | 6.70% | -0.10% |
| Paramount Insurance Company | 8.94% | 0.00% |
| SummaCare | 2.50% | 0.00% |
| Oklahoma* | ||
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of Oklahoma | -0.05% | Unknown |
| Bright Health Insurance Company | 1.84% | Unknown |
| CommunityCare HMO Inc. | -24.40% | Unknown |
| Medica Insurance Company | -5.27% | Unknown |
| Oscar Insurance Company | New entrant | Unknown |
| UnitedHealthcare | New entrant | Unknown |
| Oregon | ||
| Bridgespan Health Company | 11.10% | 0.00% |
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of the Northwest | -3.51% | 0.00% |
| Moda | 4.70% | 0.90% |
| PacificSource Health Plans | 4.20% | 0.00% |
| Providence Health Plan | 1.40% | 1.00% |
| Regence Blue Cross Blue Shield | 2.50% | 0.00% |
| Pennsylvania | ||
| Capital Advantage Assurance Company | -14.43% | 0.00% |
| Highmark Inc. | -0.67% | 2.50% |
| Highmark Benefits Group | -3.96% | 2.50% |
| Highmark Coverage Advantage | 3.12% | 2.50% |
| Geisinger Health Plan | -11.28% | 0.00% |
| Geisinger Quality Options | -13.57% | 0.00% |
| Keystone Health Plan East | -3.91% | 1.00% |
| QCC Insurance Company | -3.88% | 1.00% |
| UPMC Health Options | 1.28% | 0.00% |
| PA Health and Wellness | -6.60% | 1.40% |
| Oscar Health Plan of PA | 6.68% | 2.10% |
| Rhode Island* | ||
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of Rhode Island | 4.96% | Unknown |
| Neighborhood Health Plan of Rhode Island | 5.60% | 2.50% |
| South Carolina | ||
| Absolute Total Care, Inc | 8.50% | 0.00% |
| Blue Cross and Blue Shield of South Carolina | -1.85% | Unknown |
| Bright Health Company of South Carolina | -0.05% | Unknown |
| Molina Healthcare of South Carolina | -3.60% | Unknown |
| South Dakota* | ||
| Avera Health Plans, Inc. | 4.29% | Unknown |
| Sanford Health Plan | 0.24% | 1.02% |
| Tennessee | ||
| Celtic Insurance Company | -2.50% | 2.00% |
| Cigna Health and Life Insurance Company | -6.01% | 1.00% |
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of Tennessee | 9.82% | 1.80% |
| Bright Health Insurance Company of Tennessee | 3.01% | -2.00% |
| Oscar Healthcare | 9.90% | -0.50% |
| United healthcare Insurance Company | New entrant | 0.00% |
| Texas* | ||
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of Texas | 2.97% | Unknown |
| Celtic Insurance Company | 11.69% | 0.00% |
| CHRISTUS Health Plan | 3.16% | Unknown |
| Community Health Choice, Inc. | 8.65% | Unknown |
| Molina Healthcare of Texas, Inc. | 5.30% | Unknown |
| Oscar Insurance Company | 9.91% | Unknown |
| Sendero Health Plans, Inc. | 8.81% | 0.00% |
| SHA FirstCare Health Plans | 2.81% | -3.40% |
| Utah | ||
| Cigna Health and Life Insurance Company | 2.20% | 1.00% |
| Molina Healthcare of Utah | -1.63% | 0.00% |
| Regence BlueCross BlueShield of Utah | -7.31% | 0.00% |
| SelectHealth | -1.60% | No mention |
| University of Utah Health Insurance Plans | 3.00% | Unknown |
| Vermont | ||
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of Vermont | 4.20% | 0.00% |
| MVP Health Care | 2.70% | 1.30% |
| Virginia* | ||
| CareFirst BlueChoice, | -9.70% | 0.00% |
| Cigna Health and Life Insurance Company | -11.70% | 1.00% |
| Group Hospitalization and Medical Services | 5.20% | 0.00% |
| HealthKeepers | -7.70% | Unknown |
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of the Mid-Atlantic States | -13.00% | 0.00% |
| Optima Health Insurance Company | -2.00% | Unknown |
| Optima Health Plan – HMO | 7.74% | 0.90% |
| Optimum Choice, Inc. | New entrant | Unknown |
| Oscar Insurance Company | 2.20% | 0.20% |
| Piedmont Community Healthcare HMO, Inc. | -3.40% | Unknown |
| Washington | ||
| Bridgespan Health Comapny | -0.17% | Unknown |
| Community Health Network of Washington | New entrant | No mention |
| Coordinated Care Corporation | 0.93% | Unknown |
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of the Northwest | -1.87% | No mention |
| Kaiser Foundation Health Plan of Washington | -4.86% | Unknown |
| Lifewise Health Plan of Washington | -2.06% | Unknown |
| Molina Healthcare of Washington Inc. | -3.19% | 3.20% |
| Pacific Source Health Plans | 7.63% | Unknown |
| Premera Blue Cross | -8.67% | Unknown |
| Providence Health Plan | 3.18% | No mention |
| Regence Blue Cross Blue Shield of Oregon | -4.08% | Unknown |
| Regence BlueShield | -5.35% | Unknown |
| UnitedHealthcare of Oregon | New entrant | 2.50% |
| West Virginia* | ||
| CareSource West Virginia Co. | 6.26% | Unknown |
| Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield West Virginia | 4.34% | Unknown |
| The Health Plan of West Virginia, Inc. | 3.67% | No mention |
| Wisconsin* | ||
| Aspirus Arise Health Plan of Wisconsin, Inc | -12.89% | -2.20% |
| Children’s Community Health Plan | -7.47% | Unknown |
| Common Ground Healthcare Cooperative | -6.25% | Unknown |
| Dean Health Plan | -2.27% | Unknown |
| Group Health Cooperative of South Central Wisconsin | -6.81% | Unknown |
| HealthPartners Insurance Company | -3.40% | Unknown |
| Medica Community Health Plan | 5.87% | Unknown |
| MercyCare HMO, Inc. | -1.39% | Unknown |
| Molina Healthcare of Wisconsin, Inc. | -3.50% | Unknown |
| Network Health Plan | 3.34% | Unknown |
| Wyoming | ||
| Blue Cross Blue Shield of Wyoming | -10.2% | Unknown |
| *Indicates that the rates shown for the state have not been finalized. **Connecticut Insurance Department instructed insurers to include a COVID-impact of 0% NOTE: ‘Unknown’ includes plans where the rate change or impact of COVID-19 on rates was redacted or otherwise unavailable for some reason. SOURCE: KFF analysis of insurer rate filings to state regulators. |
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